VAWG and Public Protection Analysis and Research
NCVPP VAWG and Public Protection Strategic Threat Risk Assessment Animation
Watch the animation for a summary of the key findings from the NCVPP VAWG and PP Strategic Threat Risk Assessment
NCVPP VAWG and Public Protection Strategic Threat Risk Assessment (STRA)
Read the NCVPP Strategic Threat Risk Assessment in full
The NCVPP Strategic Threat Risk Assessment (STRA), brings together evidence from across England and Wales to provide the most comprehensive picture of the threats facing women, girls and children.
VAWG was declared a national emergency in 2024, and this assessment shows how the threat landscape has continued to evolve.
Domestic abuse remains the most significant threat – accounting for 65% of all VAWG crimes. More than half of recorded rape and serious sexual assault offences are committed by a current or former partner.
Police-recorded sexual offences have risen by 147% over the past decade - a rise driven in part by improved recording, the introduction of new legislation and more victims coming forward but is also reflective of a growing and evolving threat as reflected in the Crime Survey for England and Wales.
Repeat perpetrators are now linked to at least a quarter of violence against women and girls (VAWG) offences, reinforcing the need for policing to prioritise efforts to identify and manage those responsible for causing the greatest harm.
Technology is rapidly reshaping the threat landscape. Online abuse, sexual extortion, image-based abuse, and emerging AI-enabled harms are increasingly intertwined with offending in the physical world, creating new challenges for policing, safeguarding agencies, and technology providers.
Overall, at least one in five recorded crimes now relate to VAWG and public protection, yet even this significantly understates the true scale of harm. Many offences, particularly in the online sphere, remain unreported, meaning the harm experienced by victims and communities is likely to be significantly greater than official figures suggest.
Tackling these threats will require a coordinated response from policing, government, education, health, technology companies, safeguarding partners and communities.
The publication of the STRA marks an important milestone in the national response to violence against women and girls. Alongside the establishment of the NCVPP, it provides tangible evidence of progress in developing a more coordinated, evidence-led approach to understanding threat, identifying risk and targeting activity where it can have the greatest impact.
Commenting on the publication of the STRA, NCVPP Director DAC Helen Millichap said:
"For the first time, we have a national evidence base across all VAWG and public protection offences that helps us understand these threats consistently, identify those causing the greatest harm and support action that can be scaled across England and Wales.
"Policing has a vital role to play, but lasting change requires a genuine whole-system response, with every organisation that has the ability to prevent harm playing its part.
"The reality is that many violence against women and girls' offences may never be reported to police. We want that to change, and we know that confidence in how victims will be treated, whether they will be believed and whether they will be protected can influence whether someone comes forward.”
Overview of NCVPP Research Analysis and Data function
Policing recognises the need to continually strengthen its response to Violence Against Women and Girls (VAWG) and Public Protection (PP), prevent harm and build public trust and confidence. The National Centre for Violence Prevention and Policing (NCVPP) provides national support to policing through research, analysis and evidence-led insight that helps improve understanding of key threats and effective policing practice.
The NCVPP's Research Analysis and Data function plays a key role in supporting the national policing response to VAWG and public protection. By bringing together data, performance insight, research and evaluation, the team helps develop a stronger evidence base to inform decision-making at both strategic and operational levels.
The team works closely with policing, government and academic partners to analyse the scale and nature of violence and vulnerability, identify emerging trends and understand what works in preventing harm and improving outcomes for victims. This includes commissioning and delivering research, capturing learning from across forces and translating evidence into practical guidance that supports frontline delivery.
Through robust analysis and research, the NCVPP helps policing better understand performance, drive continuous improvement and support a more effective response to violence against women and girls, helping make communities safer.